RM's+How+Much+Worse+Economy+Will+Get

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 * So how much worse will this economy get?**


 * Although the end of the recession is expected at the end of 2009 (provided that the financial markets stabilize), several aspects of the economy will continue to deteriorate until that time and beyond. Among these is the labor market. The **official unemployment rate** current stands at **8.1%** and it is expected to reach **9-10% by 2010**, even after the economy emerges from a recession. In fact, many people are concerned that the current measure for unemployment does not take into acccount the entire labor market situation, because the measure does not include discouraged workers who are no longer seeking employment or part-time workers that want full-time employment.

Therefore, the **U-6 measure for unemployment** paints a more realistic picture of the job market. At the moment, that number stands at **14.8%** for the month of February 2009, compared to the significantly smaller 8%. You can compare the drastic differences [|here].


 * Investment, particularly non-residential investment, is unlikely to recover before the end of the recession. Usually, investment lags the end of a recession.
 * There is a threat of deflation on the horizon, as mentioned earlier, that could pose significant risks to the economy and worse the debt obligations of several institutions.
 * As for government spending, it is plunging the U.S. into a greater budget deficit.
 * Trade will still be hard to recover because China and Japan, two of the top exporting countries, are suffering heavy losses and economic turmoil as well, resulting in declined foreign trade. Imports to the U.S., too, have dropped. Overally, global growth is approaching 0%, and, whereas global trade had fueled the global economy, a decline in global trade will contribute to a global growth slowdown.